Last year's solid performance among U.S. refiners was driven primarily by the high WTI-Brent differential, high demand for refined product exports, relatively low energy costs, and a decline in capital spending. Going forward, these trends should continue for at least the next couple of quarters.

This should allow many of the larger refiners, which are generating high amounts of free cash flow, to continue returning cash to shareholders, who are enjoying the trend of dividend increases and share buybacks.