BOOOM WNR +6.13%
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WNR Q4
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Western Refining, Inc. WNR +3.36% today reported fourth quarter 2012 net income, excluding special items, of $155.7 million, or $1.45 per diluted share. This compares to fourth quarter 2011 net income, excluding special items, of $50.8 million, or $0.50 per diluted share. Including special items, the Company recorded fourth quarter 2012 net income of $207.6 million, or $1.92 per diluted share as compared to a net loss of $64.6 million, or $0.72 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2011. The special item for the fourth quarter of 2012 was a non-cash unrealized pre-tax hedging gain of $81.5 million. The quarter-on-quarter improvement was due in large part to higher refining margins resulting from cost-advantaged crude oils and strong product values in the Southwest U.S.
For the year ended December 31, 2012, the Company reported net income, excluding special items, of $552.3 million, or $5.08 per diluted share as compared to net income, excluding special items, of $330.4 million, or $3.14 per diluted share for the year ended December 31, 2011. Including special items, Western recorded full year 2012 net income of $398.9 million, or $3.71 per diluted share compared to full year 2011 net income of $132.7 million, or $1.34 per diluted share.
A reconciliation of reported earnings and description of special items can be found in the accompanying financial tables.
Jeff Stevens, Western's President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "In 2012, Western Refining realized its highest fourth quarter and full year Adjusted EBITDA in Company history. We undertook a number of strategic actions to capitalize on the strong margin environment, strengthen our balance sheet, and invest in the business. Over the last two years, we believe we have demonstrated our ability to capture these positive market conditions and dramatically transform the earnings power of the Company."
The Company successfully completed a number of strategic initiatives during 2012:
-- reduced total debt by $304 million
-- returned $323 million in cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases
-- expanded the crude oil capacity of the Gallup Refinery
-- invested in a gathering system for cost-advantaged crude oil in the Permian Basin
Forecasters
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-- Warren Buffett
Value Trap?
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W&T Offshore has been one of my long-positions.
Q4 was not convincing. I think the stock could go down towards support at 13,80 dollar/share.
I will folllow how insiders, that has been very bullish before will do now.
Q4 was not convincing. I think the stock could go down towards support at 13,80 dollar/share.
I will folllow how insiders, that has been very bullish before will do now.
Equities are still not expensive
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VIX +36.39%
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Italy
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Nouriel Roubini
Saxo
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http://cise.luiss.it/cise/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/sim80.jpg
Says something does it not? Winner: Comedy Central. Loser: Central Planning (Monti). This is exactly why Draghi's plan for a plan to bail-out Europe does not work - The pressure came off for two month and the Italians reverted to their old ways. Congratulation we have just seen why macro will always fail and why only through serious mandate for change Europe and for that matter the world will change.
Adding Value to Investing
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-- Warren Buffett
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Steen's Chronicle
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With 25 years of experience as a trader, market maker and fund manager, I should have known better! The stock market and the economy are, of course, linked but rarely on a strict day-to-day or even month-to-month basis. Most often it is a mismatch between expectations and the current reality, both amplified by the critical element of monetary policy, that produces sentiment and market pricing that diverge from the real economy. This is very evident today in Europe with the seemingly illogical combination of historical highs in both unemployment and stock markets. Stock markets have reached the pre-crisis highs of 2007/2008.
History shows that such divergence has its limits and expiration dates – either the economy improves dramatically or markets will need to adjust their expectations lower. To grasp such divergences in a historical perspective, it is useful to look at the difference between broad stock indices like the MSCI World and the German IFO. In 2013, the divergence between the underlying weak economic performance as measured by this survey and the stock market has reached the extremes of levels prevailing before markets crashed in 2000. Hardly a good sign, but remember that the difference can be reduced two ways: stocks dropping or the economy improving.
Fundamentally, the stock market is a “sub-component” of the entire economy, or GDP. Therefore, stocks must correspond to some degree with the rise and fall of the economy and relative to other economic factors like inflation and productivity. A long-term bull market in stocks usually coincides not only with economic growth, but increased productivity and risk premiums. Even more importantly, a real bull market makes everyone benefit, rich and poor, through lower unemployment, productivity and investment – all of which are failing in this present run-up in prices.
So how do investors deal with such an investment conundrum? Ironically, to the well-placed investor all the above technical economic understanding does not really matter. Experience shows that an investor willing to risk holding illiquid assets is rewarded with a risk premium for taking on that risk. The risk premium fluctuates based on inflation, current interest rates and income through dividends from a given stock. Stocks must give a higher yield than bonds to compensate for their inferior liquidity.
When European Central Bank president Mario Draghi in July 2012 ensured the world that he would do “whatever it takes” to keep the Euro alive, he created a massive move into more illiquid assets by removing the presumed negative potential in bonds and hence indirectly fuelling stocks. But again – as investors, we do not need to understand this. If we follow simple rules, we do not need to mix our analysis of the real economy with stock pricing. We can be economic agnostics.
In the 1970s, the American investor Harry Browne crafted the so-called Permanent Portfolio. Its logic is very simple. Invest 25 percent in each of four different assets: stocks, long government bonds, metals and cash. Sounds boring? From 1972 to 2011, the yield from such an allocation has been 9.5 percent. In real terms, no less than 4.9 percent. A much higher yield than the stock market and with a significantly lower risk! An investment of USD 10,000 in 1972 would have grown to USD 377,193 by 2012.
This does not mean that active trading does not pay off, but works to illustrate that it wise to always have a “dumb model” as a backstop or frame of reference. Extra risk or changes in allocation should only be taken when one has an “edge” or strong indicators of being right! The famous hedge fund manager Ray Dalio from Bridgewater has expanded the idea into his All Weather Model. As the name suggests, it is designed to handle any economic condition. The results have been very convincing. Since 1996, the annual yield has been approximately 12 percent, turning Bridgewater into the world’s largest fund with USD 141 billion under management.
The difference between the two is that Harry Brown allocates assets while Ray Dalio and Bridgewater allocate risk. What they hold in common is a total agnostic attitude towards the market. They accept the very important premises of trading: we do not know what tomorrow brings; we do not know where we are going and we will get our yield primarily from extracting the risk premium from assets. The beauty of all this is that we do not have to understand the relationship between the economy and stock markets to invest efficiently. Considering the current unpredictable macroeconomic interventions, such an approach should offer a huge relief from trying to understand everything that is going on, and possibly an advantage to any investor who does not have direct access to the minds of powerful policymakers and central bankers.
As I mentioned above, an investor should only depart from this route if he has a very strong feeling or belief that something is going to happen. Personally, I allocate 70 percent in an All Weather Model. That helped me to get a decent yield in 2012 even though I was almost 100 percent wrong in my very conservative stock market predictions. I used the remaining 30 percent to insure against Black Swan events or place opportunistic investments. I am presently long-term bullish on Sub-Saharan Africa investments. The answer to the title’s question is that the stock market may diverge from the real economy for a limited period, but this has no impact on the rationally placed investor. Investing is about logic and rationality – not genius. And that’s a good thing for all of us.
Helicopter money!
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New High New Low
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Marathon Petroleum Corporation
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FINDLAY, Ohio, Jan. 30, 2013 - Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) announced today that its board of directors has approved an additional $2 billion share repurchase authorization. The board also extended the remaining $650 million share repurchase authorization announced on Feb. 1, 2012, for a total outstanding authorization of $2.65 billion through December 2014. MPC may utilize various methods to effect the repurchases, which could include open market repurchases, negotiated block transactions, accelerated share repurchases or open market solicitations for shares, some of which may be effected through Rule 10b5-1 plans. The timing of repurchases will depend upon several factors, including market and business conditions, and repurchases may be discontinued at any time.
The board also declared a fourth-quarter dividend of 35 cents per share on Marathon Petroleum Corporation common stock. The dividend is payable March 11, 2013, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on Feb. 20, 2013.
"Our focus has remained on returning capital to our shareholders while continuing to make value enhancing investments in the company. Our strong financial position and operating cash flow enabled us to increase our dividend by 40 percent in 2012 and to execute two accelerated share repurchase programs totaling $1.35 billion. Today's announcement builds upon our continuing commitment to our shareholders," said MPC President and CEO Gary R. Heminger.
The board also declared a fourth-quarter dividend of 35 cents per share on Marathon Petroleum Corporation common stock. The dividend is payable March 11, 2013, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on Feb. 20, 2013.
"Our focus has remained on returning capital to our shareholders while continuing to make value enhancing investments in the company. Our strong financial position and operating cash flow enabled us to increase our dividend by 40 percent in 2012 and to execute two accelerated share repurchase programs totaling $1.35 billion. Today's announcement builds upon our continuing commitment to our shareholders," said MPC President and CEO Gary R. Heminger.
Pickens
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Pickens’s Dallas-based BP Capital Management LP bought 211,703 shares of Newfield valued at $5.7 million, 184,900 shares of Marathon valued at $5.7 million and 63,000 shares of Occidental valued at $4.8 million in the three months ended Dec. 31, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Moving abroad
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I will try to keep the blogg alive..
TESORO CORPORATION
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Refiners’ Strong Performance
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This should allow many of the larger refiners, which are generating high amounts of free cash flow, to continue returning cash to shareholders, who are enjoying the trend of dividend increases and share buybacks.
Property
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usually generates predictable cash-flow and
is a good hedge against inflation. Listed
property is good for investors since it is both
liquid and offers transparent pricing.”
- Kristoffer Stensrud, SKAGEN founder
Spinoff
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We believe the separated retail business will perform well and unlock value for shareholders for several reasons. First, CST Brands will be the second largest publicly traded independent retailer of fuel and convenience merchandise in North America with nearly 1,900 sites. Second, these sites are located in geographically diverse regions: the southwestern United States and Eastern Canada. Third, many of the 1,032 U.S. retail sites are in Texas and surrounding states, which have strong economic growth. Fourth, CST Brands has substantial ownership of the sites with approximately 60% owned, not leased. Fifth, there’s a long history of strong financial performance and brand recognition. And finally, CST Brands has significant growth opportunities in merchandise, food service, and new-build locations.
...
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- Peter Lynch
Dovish
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CNBC interview
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//Steen Jakobsen
Checklist
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European Central Bank meeting
Bank of England meeting
EU Budget talks in Brussels
Incoming BOE Governor Carney in front of Treasury Select Committee
/Saxo Bank
ALLIED NEVADA GOLD
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B
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others are fearful.4
—Warren Buffett
Spain?
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Charlie Munger
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Steen Jakobsen
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Golden State?
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this lucky Golden-Stater may now be over 60%, including all income taxes, Medicare taxes, and the new
ObamaCare tax of 3.8% on investment income. This does not include taxes for Social Security, property
taxes, sales tax, or a host of other taxes.
