Graham
Kategori: Allmänt
- Benjamin Graham
- Benjamin Graham
Ron Paul
Kategori: Allmänt
“Chairman Bernanke and the government falsely believe they can single-handedly control interest rates. Yes, there can be some manipulation, but markets are much more powerful.
“The Federal Reserve has lost control of interest rates, and we are seeing the results in higher yields on Treasury notes, likely due to the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary expansion over the past few years. Until our leaders understand that the Federal Reserve’s drastic intervention in the US economy has made our economic problems worse, the American people will continue to suffer high unemployment, rising prices, and now, rising interest rates for years to come.”
Europe Still “Not so Great”
Kategori: Allmänt
David Zahn
“My overall take on Europe is that it’s not doing badly. There is still a lot of rebalancing that needs to be done between the periphery and the core countries. This will take time. There are still measures that need to put through. There are a number of structural problems in Europe that still need to be dealt with, and they are being dealt with at a reasonable speed. If Europe doesn’t contract in the next year or two, we think that could be considered as doing quite well.
GOLD
Kategori: Allmänt
-- Charlie Munger
Eurogroup Statement on Cyprus
Kategori: Allmänt
The Eurogroup welcomes the decision of the Board of Directors of the European Stability Mechanism to approve the first tranche of EUR 3 bn of financial assistance to Cyprus, in the context of the programme whose key features were agreed between Cyprus and the euro area Member States on 25 March and of the Memorandum of Understanding signed between Cyprus and the European Commission at the end of April. The first disbursement under the first tranche for an amount of EUR 2 bn took place today. This is an important step towards the stabilisation of the Cypriot economy reflecting our unwavering commitment to preserving the financial stability of the euro area and its Member States.
Cyprus has implemented all prior actions as agreed in the MoU preceding the decision by the ESM on the first disbursement. The Eurogroup commends the Cypriot authorities for delivering on their commitments to date and reiterates its appreciation and understanding for the efforts made by the Cypriot citizens.
The Eurogroup also welcomes the completion of the independent assessments of compliance with the anti-money laundering framework in Cyprus. The Troika institutions have reported the key findings to the Eurogroup, and recommendations to rectify deficiencies will be integrated in the AML action plan to be agreed between the Troika institutions and the Cypriot authorities at the time of the first review. The action plan will need to target areas covering implementation of customer due diligence by banks, including through adequate supervision, and the functioning of the company registry, among others. It remains essential to proceed with the implementation of the adjustment programme in a steadfast manner in order to restore financial stability in Cyprus and to lay the foundations for a sustainable path of growth.
Cyprus
Kategori: Allmänt
What was the role of decisions by Cyprus, decisions by Europe, and other factors in producing the crisis we see now?
A number of factors played a role. The global financial crisis and exposure to Greece made Cyprus vulnerable. But the outcome was determined by decisions taken by the previous government in Cyprus as well as the broader malfunction of the euro area over the past three years.
Two months after Cyprus joined the euro area [in January, 2008], there were presidential elections and the Cypriot public elected as president a communist, Demetris Christofias. The public was convinced he could solve the political problem we had with Turkey and reunify the island. The issue was not economic.
If one thing has become clear over the last five years in Cyprus, it is that the euro area, which is not just a market economy but a currency union with strict rules, is not compatible with a communist government. Why is this important? This government took a country with excellent fiscal finances, a surplus in fiscal accounts, and a banking system that was in excellent health. They started overspending, not only for unproductive government expenditures but also they raised implicit liabilities by raising pension promises, and so forth.
A number of factors played a role. The global financial crisis and exposure to Greece made Cyprus vulnerable. But the outcome was determined by decisions taken by the previous government in Cyprus as well as the broader malfunction of the euro area over the past three years.
Two months after Cyprus joined the euro area [in January, 2008], there were presidential elections and the Cypriot public elected as president a communist, Demetris Christofias. The public was convinced he could solve the political problem we had with Turkey and reunify the island. The issue was not economic.
If one thing has become clear over the last five years in Cyprus, it is that the euro area, which is not just a market economy but a currency union with strict rules, is not compatible with a communist government. Why is this important? This government took a country with excellent fiscal finances, a surplus in fiscal accounts, and a banking system that was in excellent health. They started overspending, not only for unproductive government expenditures but also they raised implicit liabilities by raising pension promises, and so forth.
VIX +11,66%
Kategori: Allmänt
Outlook
Kategori: Allmänt
Buffett
Kategori: Allmänt
-- Warren Buffett
Valuation
Kategori: Allmänt
The current forward 12-month P/E ratio for the index is 13.7. The P/E ratio is based on Thursday’s
closing price of 1563.23 and forward 12-month EPS estimate of 113.71.
closing price of 1563.23 and forward 12-month EPS estimate of 113.71.
This 13.7 P/E ratio is above the prior 5-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 12.8, but below the
prior 10-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.2. It is also slightly above the P/E ratio of 13.5
recorded one month ago. Over the past month, the price of the index has increased 2.8% (to 1563.23
from 1521.38), while the forward 12-month EPS estimate has risen 0.7% (to $113.71 from $112.93).
At the sector level, the Telecom Services sector has the highest forward 12-month P/E ratio at 17.3,
while the Financials (11.9) and Energy (12.0) sectors have the lowest forward 12-month P/E ratios.
Over the past month, the Telecom Services (to 17.3 from 16.7) sector has seen the largest increase in
forward 12-month P/E ratios of all ten sectors, while the Consumer Staples sector (to 12.0 from 12.1)
has witnessed the largest decline in the forward 12-month P/E ratio of all ten sectors.
Global Themes
Kategori: Allmänt
Europe is reporting a decline in economic growth relative to last year. According to FactSet Economics,
the European Union recorded a decrease in GDP of 0.6% in Q4 2012, compared to growth of 0.8% in Q4
2011. During the fourth quarter earnings season, many companies stated that economic conditions
were still weak in Europe.
“The decline in Ford Europe's fourth quarter pre-tax results was more than explained by unfavorable
volume and mix. The industry for the 19 markets Ford tracks in Europe was 13.5 million units, the lowest
quarterly SAAR since 1995.” – Ford Motor (Jan. 29)
Economic growth in countries in emerging markets has also been decreasing over the past year.
According to FactSet Economics, two of the four “BRIC” countries recorded slower GDP growth and one
country recorded constant growth during this time. For Q4 2011, China, India, and Brazil recorded GDP
growth of 8.9%, 5.8% and 1.4%, respectively. By Q4 2012, GDP growth rates for China, India, and Brazil
had fallen to 7.9%, 4.1% and 1.4%.
However, the 7.9% GDP growth reported by China reflected a sequential improvement relative to the
GDP growth reported for Q3 2012 (7.4%). A number of companies have stated that they saw strength in
emerging markets in the fourth quarter, or that they expect stronger economic growth and demand for
goods in emerging markets (particularly China) in 2013.
“Growth in China is showing signs of picking up with positive implications for the rest of Asia. The general
consensus of our business leaders on China is the economy is improving and this will continue through
2013.” –DuPont (Jan. 22)
Will revenue growth continue to be weak in Europe? Will revenue growth improve in emerging markets
(China)? These will be themes to monitor during the upcoming earnings season
the European Union recorded a decrease in GDP of 0.6% in Q4 2012, compared to growth of 0.8% in Q4
2011. During the fourth quarter earnings season, many companies stated that economic conditions
were still weak in Europe.
“The decline in Ford Europe's fourth quarter pre-tax results was more than explained by unfavorable
volume and mix. The industry for the 19 markets Ford tracks in Europe was 13.5 million units, the lowest
quarterly SAAR since 1995.” – Ford Motor (Jan. 29)
Economic growth in countries in emerging markets has also been decreasing over the past year.
According to FactSet Economics, two of the four “BRIC” countries recorded slower GDP growth and one
country recorded constant growth during this time. For Q4 2011, China, India, and Brazil recorded GDP
growth of 8.9%, 5.8% and 1.4%, respectively. By Q4 2012, GDP growth rates for China, India, and Brazil
had fallen to 7.9%, 4.1% and 1.4%.
However, the 7.9% GDP growth reported by China reflected a sequential improvement relative to the
GDP growth reported for Q3 2012 (7.4%). A number of companies have stated that they saw strength in
emerging markets in the fourth quarter, or that they expect stronger economic growth and demand for
goods in emerging markets (particularly China) in 2013.
“Growth in China is showing signs of picking up with positive implications for the rest of Asia. The general
consensus of our business leaders on China is the economy is improving and this will continue through
2013.” –DuPont (Jan. 22)
Will revenue growth continue to be weak in Europe? Will revenue growth improve in emerging markets
(China)? These will be themes to monitor during the upcoming earnings season
France
Kategori: Allmänt
//Saxo Bank
VLO
Kategori: Allmänt
Just a reminder...
Kategori: Allmänt
Daily round-up
Kategori: Allmänt
Presented by Paul Donovan
UBS does not believe that the Euro will break up. We still do not believe that the Euro will break up. The bail out of Cyprus over this weekend has not helped that conviction, however, and contagion risks are higher as a result of the terms of the bail out.
The "wealth tax" on all Cypriot domiciled bank deposits is effectively a grab of deposits. No matter what assurances are offered, it is likely in the future that depositors in ANY Euro banking system that is considered at risk of requiring a bailout will be more inclined to panic and withdraw their deposits in anticipation of similar treatment.
Every Euro area finance minister should be reminded, daily, that history tells us that monetary unions die as a result of bank runs. Preserving confidence in the integrity of banking systems is critical to a stable monetary union. Moreover, people will irrationally overreact to even a small threat of losing what they already own.
Elsewhere, Italy's Bersani got a speaker elected to the lower house and the Senate of the Italian parliament, but the level of support for his candidates underscores the weakness of parliamentary support for any possible Bersani administration. Euro trade data and US housing data make the calendar today.
